Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.243034 0.273758 0.307026 0.345752 0.389626 0.437831 0.494862
2025-11-09 0.184864 0.223058 0.267456 0.322977 0.390692 0.470779 0.572956
2025-11-16 0.148799 0.190841 0.242900 0.312322 0.402812 0.517233 0.673633
2025-11-23 0.121578 0.164803 0.221494 0.301668 0.412768 0.562210 0.780027
2025-11-30 0.105665 0.150781 0.213199 0.306467 0.443363 0.638587 0.941059
2025-12-07 0.088213 0.131850 0.195213 0.294747 0.448728 0.680420 1.060229
2025-12-14 0.075816 0.118302 0.182831 0.289051 0.461685 0.734930 1.207472
2025-12-21 0.065786 0.106821 0.171802 0.283528 0.473694 0.789344 1.363512
2025-12-28 0.059871 0.100973 0.168703 0.290124 0.506178 0.881649 1.598972
2026-01-04 0.053272 0.093027 0.160980 0.287591 0.522349 0.948137 1.799763
2026-01-11 0.048361 0.087293 0.156200 0.289409 0.546351 1.031938 2.047206
2026-01-18 0.044803 0.083475 0.154252 0.296022 0.580114 1.138860 2.358649
2026-01-25 0.039359 0.075593 0.144069 0.286005 0.581109 1.184386 2.557931
2026-02-01 0.034200 0.067589 0.132629 0.271872 0.571684 1.207557 2.714672
2026-02-08 0.030633 0.062270 0.125764 0.266125 0.579028 1.267443 2.966015
2026-02-15 0.027422 0.057255 0.118862 0.259286 0.582935 1.320549 3.212539
2026-02-22 0.025704 0.055151 0.117746 0.264954 0.616006 1.445568 3.660254
2026-03-01 0.022985 0.050531 0.110623 0.255964 0.613360 1.485954 3.901464
2026-03-08 0.020952 0.047176 0.105864 0.251796 0.621716 1.554660 4.232189
2026-03-15 0.019141 0.044100 0.101344 0.247536 0.629157 1.622338 4.574603
2026-03-22 0.018190 0.042906 0.101038 0.253634 0.664210 1.768041 5.170954
2026-03-29 0.016842 0.040594 0.097768 0.251697 0.677621 1.857735 5.621241
2026-04-05 0.015829 0.038980 0.096006 0.253467 0.701527 1.981034 6.203008